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What is the Erie Study? Friends Influence Voting More Than Media

    エリー調査

    Have you ever heard of the “Erie Study”?

    This is a famous research conducted in America about elections and people’s way of thinking. The official title is ‘The People’s Choice‘.

    This study revealed that the influence of “people around us” such as family and friends was greater than that of television and newspapers.

    In today’s era, we encounter a lot of information every day. News and opinions flowing through social media are part of that.

    But actually, “who is saying it” might have a stronger influence on our thinking than the information itself.

    In this article, we’ll introduce the content of the Erie Study and how it can be applied in today’s society in an easy-to-understand way. Even people who aren’t familiar with politics will find content that makes them think “Oh, this might be about me.”

    Once again, personality researcher and author of Villain Encyclopedia, Tokiwa (@etokiwa999), will provide the explanation.
    ※We have developed the HEXACO-JP Personality Assessment! It has more scientific basis than MBTI. Tap below for details.

    What is the Erie Study? Easy-to-understand explanation of the basics

    What is the Erie Study?

    The Erie Study is a famous election research from America.

    This research investigated how voting behavior is determined.

    It focused on the 1940 American presidential election.

    The survey was conducted in Erie County, Ohio.

    During the election period, about 600 people were questioned multiple times.

    Specifically, 7 interviews were conducted over 7 months.

    As a result, many people had already decided who to vote for from the beginning.

    In other words, few people changed their opinions during the election period.

    From this study, what triggers people to change their minds became clear.

    In particular, it was found that relationships with people around us are important.

    In summary, the Erie Study is important research that reveals electoral thinking and social influence.

    Who investigated this and where?

    The research was conducted by Paul Lazarsfeld and others.

    He was an American sociologist and a pioneer in media research.

    The location of the survey was a region called Erie County, Ohio.

    Erie County is an area with a mix of urban and rural areas.

    Republican and Democratic support was split exactly half and half.

    Therefore, it was a place where it was easy to see which way things would go.

    About 600 citizens cooperated with the survey.

    These people were asked for their opinions repeatedly over 7 months.

    The method was to actually meet and interview them.

    In this way, changes in thinking and influences were carefully investigated.

    Thus, the researchers conducted their survey using actual people in Erie County and obtained reliable results.

    What kind of people were surveyed?

    The survey subjects were ordinary citizens.

    They were not people with special knowledge of politics.

    Various people of different ages, occupations, and genders were included.

    In particular, the focus was on adults with voting rights.

    Where they lived also included both urban and rural areas.

    People were selected broadly, taking into account differences in religion and income.

    Therefore, opinions from many different standpoints were gathered.

    The aim of the survey was to understand how ordinary people think.

    How people without special knowledge are influenced was important.

    In other words, the Erie Study revealed how diverse people in society decide how to vote.

    What was the purpose of the survey?

    The purpose was to see how much mass media influences people’s thinking.

    At that time, many people believed in the power of media.

    It was thought that newspapers and radio greatly changed people’s thinking.

    However, it was necessary to clarify what actually happens.

    So, the survey compared the influence of media and human relationships.

    As a result, it was found that people close to us have a greater influence.

    Few people changed their opinions based on mass media alone.

    This was a discovery that greatly changed the way of thinking at the time.

    In summary, the purpose of this survey was to thoroughly investigate the relationship between information flow and voting behavior.

    How was the investigation conducted?

    The survey was conducted repeatedly in interview format.

    It was not done just once, but 7 times during the election period.

    This is called a “panel survey”.

    This is a method of listening to the same people multiple times.

    Through this, we could see changes over time.

    Investigators visited homes and listened to people directly.

    The content they listened to included voting opinions and their reasons.

    They also asked about what kind of people influenced them.

    In this way, they investigated how people’s thoughts change.

    Through this survey method, they could understand the detailed movements of people’s hearts, not just superficial opinions.

    The Voting Secrets Revealed by the Erie Survey

    Why Many People Didn’t Change Their Vote

    The survey found that more than half of the people did not change their voting choice.

    This was a very significant discovery.

    Even though the election period was long, their thoughts hardly changed.

    Once people form an opinion, they try to protect it.

    In particular, they cherish what they already believe.

    This characteristic is called “predisposition.”

    When you have predisposition, it becomes difficult to accept new opinions.

    In other words, it’s hard to change what you initially decided.

    This tendency strongly influenced voting behavior as well.

    In summary, many people protected their original thoughts and hardly changed their opinions during the election.

    What Kind of People Changed Their Vote?

    Only 12% of all people changed their voting choice.

    These few people had certain characteristics.

    First, the opinions of their family and people around them were divided.

    For example, the father and mother might support different political parties.

    This situation is called “cross-pressure.”

    It becomes easy to be confused about which opinion to believe.

    In such situations, opinions become more likely to change.

    People who experienced cross-pressure often changed their voting choice.

    In other words, most people who changed their voting choice did so because they received various opinions from those around them.

    Common Traits of People Who Don’t Easily Change Their Opinion

    People who had an opinion from the beginning were unlikely to change it.

    Such people were confident in their own thoughts.

    Also, they were people who often talked with others who shared the same thoughts.

    This made it easier for them to think their own thoughts were correct.

    In such an environment, there are fewer reasons to change opinions.

    Furthermore, they trusted friends and family more than mass media.

    Therefore, even when new information came in, it was hard for them to accept it.

    Such people were commonly seen throughout the survey.

    From this, we learned that people who don’t easily change their opinions continue to hold their thoughts strongly due to confidence and environment.

    Where Is Voting Behavior Determined?

    Many people’s voting behavior was determined at home and in their community.

    Conversations with close people were more important than newspapers or radio.

    At home, parents’ opinions worked strongly.

    In the community, neighbors and friends had great influence.

    Also, colleagues’ opinions were relevant in the workplace.

    In other words, opinions were formed within daily life.

    Thus, voting was determined not just by individuals, but under the influence of those around them.

    In summary, we can see that voting behavior is often naturally formed through human relationships in daily life.

    The Relationship Between Social Background and Voting

    People’s positions and living conditions were strongly related to their voting choices.

    For example, wealthy people living in rural areas tended to support the Republican Party.

    On the other hand, poor people living in cities preferred the Democratic Party.

    Religion was also related.

    Protestants tended to choose the Republican Party, while Catholics tended toward the Democratic Party.

    Such social backgrounds are called “predisposition.”

    In other words, people’s ways of thinking become similar based on the environment they grew up in and the groups they belong to.

    Thus, individual voting can be said to often be determined by that person’s lifestyle and position in society.

    “Human Connections” Stronger Than Mass Media

    Why Family and Friends Had Strong Influence

    Opinions of people close to us are easy to believe and influence our actions.

    In the survey, conversations with family and friends were strongly related to opinions.

    More people trusted the words of people they knew than newspapers or radio.

    The opinions of parents and siblings in particular had a great influence.

    Opinions from people who give us a sense of security are easy to accept.

    Also, the thoughts of people we often talk with in daily life naturally remain in our hearts.

    The words of people we trust sometimes become our own opinions as they are.

    These connections became a major force in deciding voting choices.

    In summary, the Erie study found that the influence of close people such as family and friends works very strongly on voting behavior.

    What kind of people are opinion leaders?

    Opinion leaders are people who influence those around them.

    They are ordinary people, but they are often consulted and asked for their opinions.

    Many of them speak with confidence about political and social topics.

    They don’t have special jobs, but are kind neighbors or school seniors.

    These people compile and spread opinions to those around them.

    In the Erie study, it was found that information spreads through such people.

    In other words, information first reaches opinion leaders, and then is transmitted to those around them.

    This concept later received attention as an important theory.

    Opinion leaders can be said to serve as intermediaries for information and have a great influence on voting behavior.

    What is the “two-step flow”?

    Information first reaches some people, and then spreads from there.

    This is called the “two-step flow.”

    In the first step, media conveys information to opinion leaders.

    In the second step, those opinion leaders talk to people around them.

    This mechanism was revealed through the survey.

    Many people were hearing opinions from friends and family rather than newspapers.

    In other words, while the entry point for information was media, what they trusted were people close to them.

    This flow strongly influenced their way of thinking.

    The Erie study showed that information flow has stages, and opinions spread through people close to us.

    Why aren’t TV and newspapers enough?

    Even if there is information, who we trust is important.

    Newspapers and TV convey a lot of information.

    However, people’s opinions don’t easily change just from that.

    This is because how information is received differs from person to person.

    In particular, people who already have formed opinions find it difficult to accept new viewpoints.

    At that time, if a trusted person expresses the same opinion, they can accept it with peace of mind.

    In other words, who said it becomes more important than the content of the information.

    This point was clearly shown in the Erie study.

    It was found that going through trustworthy people is very important for conveying information correctly.

    Do neighbors determine political viewpoints?

    Community connections have a great influence on ways of thinking.

    The survey found that people living in the same town had similar opinions.

    Neighbors often talk about politics with each other.

    Through this, many people come to have the same way of thinking.

    For example, if everyone is supporting a certain political party, it becomes reassuring to do the same yourself.

    Such groups are called “reference groups.”

    Reference groups are entities that serve as standards when people decide their behavior and opinions.

    In other words, relationships within the community shape voting perspectives.

    When connections with nearby people are strong, they naturally come to have the same opinions, which greatly influences voting behavior.

    Social Mechanisms Made Clear by the Erie Study

    What does “predisposition” mean?

    “Predisposition” means that thoughts are determined by the environment in which one is born and raised.

    People are strongly influenced by the place and family environment where they grew up.

    For example, if parents always support the same political party, you tend to do the same.

    Also, the thoughts of friends and neighbors become a great force.

    In this way, thoughts often exist from the beginning rather than being formed later.

    The Erie study found that such pre-formed thoughts are strongly related to voting behavior.

    Therefore, even when hearing new opinions or media stories, thoughts don’t easily change.

    In other words, predisposition is the idea that one’s opinions are nurtured in a society where they already exist.

    The Connection Between Where You Live and Voting

    Voting patterns are clearly divided by region.

    The Erie Survey found that where you live influences your opinions.

    For example, people living in rural areas often have conservative views and tend to support the Republican Party.

    Conversely, people living in cities are more accepting of change and often choose the Democratic Party.

    This is due to the jobs and living environment of that place.

    Also, by conforming to the opinions of those around them, the overall mindset of the region becomes similar.

    In this way, where a person lives gives us a rough idea of their voting tendencies.

    The Relationship Between Religion, Income, and Politics

    What you believe and financial matters also influence voting.

    The Erie Survey found that religion and income were related to opinions.

    For example, Protestant people had strong traditional values and often chose the Republican Party.

    Catholic people had strong feelings of compassion for the vulnerable and tended to choose the Democratic Party.

    Also, people with financial comfort choose conservative parties because they try to maintain the status quo.

    On the other hand, people struggling financially often chose progressive parties, seeking change.

    Religious and financial situations are connected to voting choices through their views on society.

    What Does Reference Group Mean?

    A reference group is the people you use as reference for your way of thinking.

    People don’t decide their opinions alone.

    They often look at what the people around them are thinking and decide their own thoughts accordingly.

    For example, if friends support a certain political party, you might think about supporting it too.

    This is how “reference groups” work.

    The Erie Survey showed that the influence of reference groups is very significant.

    Examples include neighbors, family members, and people with the same job.

    In other words, reference groups are important entities that serve as standards for your opinions and actions.

    The Influence Society Has on People’s Ways of Thinking

    Social systems and connections shape people’s opinions.

    People don’t live alone.

    They interact with people in various places: home, school, community, and work.

    In each of these places, ways of thinking and behavior are naturally determined.

    The Erie Survey found that such social connections influence voting.

    Opinions acquired in society become stronger without you even realizing it.

    Therefore, they don’t change just from media information alone.

    In this way, social systems are deeply related to people’s opinions, which also connects to voting behavior.

    Lessons from the Erie Survey That Still Apply to Today’s Society

    Is Social Media Media or a Reference Group?

    Social media is both media and a place for reference groups.

    For example, if you follow celebrities or news accounts, that’s using it as media.

    On the other hand, when you look at posts from friends or people with similar thoughts, you’re being influenced by reference groups.

    In other words, social media has both aspects.

    Looking at it from the perspective of the Erie Survey, not just where information comes from, but who you trust was important.

    On social media, people are often drawn to the opinions of those they trust.

    Therefore, social media is strongly related to opinion formation within human relationships.

    In this way, social media operates not just as a place for information, but within relationships where opinions are formed.

    The Connection Between Economic Dissatisfaction and Opinion

    Original dissatisfaction with living conditions shapes opinions and social relationships.

    People with less financial comfort are more likely to feel unfairness.

    The people they talk to about that dissatisfaction are often in similar situations.

    As a result, people with similar thoughts naturally gather together.

    Within that group, opinions are formed and beliefs become stronger.

    In this way, economic disparity is involved in opinion formation through human relationships.

    The Erie Survey also clearly showed that income and living conditions influence voting.

    In other words, human relationships that form from dissatisfaction and troubles become the foundation of opinions.

    People Are Choosing Their Media

    People naturally choose media that aligns with their own thoughts.

    They don’t view all information equally.

    For example, people who like a certain political party tend to select information favorable to that party.

    This is called “selective exposure.”

    In other words, they end up gathering only information that matches their own opinions.

    This behavior is also deeply related to the “predisposition” found in the Erie study.

    Opinions come first, and then people search for information that supports them afterward.

    While it seems like they’re being influenced by information, the reality is that they’re actually selecting things that match their own opinions.

    How Reference Groups Determine Opinions

    People determine their opinions within relationships with those around them.

    Your thoughts don’t emerge from yourself alone.

    They are formed through conversations with friends, family, colleagues, and others.

    This is the concept of “reference groups” revealed by the Erie study.

    For example, when people with similar grievances gather together, their opinions solidify based on those shared grievances.

    Ideas that are considered “common sense” within that group also become individual opinions.

    In other words, people’s opinions are shaped within their relationships with society and their social circles.

    The Power of Human Relationships Over Media Influence

    Ultimately, it’s the words of people you trust that determine your opinions.

    The words of friends and family leave a stronger impression than TV or newspaper stories.

    In the Erie study, “who you heard it from” was more important than the source of the information.

    For example, the same news becomes convincing when someone you trust says it.

    Conversely, when a stranger says it, it doesn’t stick in your mind.

    This hasn’t changed even in today’s social media age.

    “Who said it” becomes a bigger key than the content you’re viewing.

    That’s why, even in future society, it’s important to value not just the content of information, but also relationships with people.

    In Conclusion

    What we learn from the Erie study is that people’s thoughts are formed within relationships with those around them.
    The opinions of trusted friends and family have a stronger influence than media like TV and newspapers.
    This mechanism hasn’t changed even now that social media has become widespread.
    People connect with others who have similar thoughts, and their opinions solidify within those connections.
    Also, at the root of opinions are dissatisfactions with daily life and feelings about society.
    These create connections that eventually lead to political viewpoints.
    In other words, your “reasons for choosing” may seem like you decided them alone, but they might actually be something you’ve created together with those around you.
    When thinking about elections and social issues, try being conscious of “who you’ve talked with” and “what kind of environment you grew up in.”
    To receive information correctly, it’s very important to know your connections with people and your own position.

    Writer & Supervisor: Eisuke Tokiwa
    Personality Psychology Researcher / CEO, SUNBLAZE Inc.

    As a child he experienced poverty, domestic abuse, bullying, truancy and dropping out of school — first-hand exposure to a range of social problems. He spent 10 years researching these issues and published Encyclopedia of Villains through Jiyukokuminsha. Since then he has independently researched the determinants of social problems and antisocial behavior (work, education, health, personality, genetics, region, etc.) and has published 2 peer-reviewed journal articles (Frontiers in Psychology, IEEE Access). His goal is to predict the occurrence of social problems. Spiky profile (WAIS-IV).

    Expertise: Personality Psychology / Big Five / HEXACO / MBTI / Prediction of Social Problems

    Researcher profiles: ORCID / Google Scholar / ResearchGate

    Social & Books: X (@etokiwa999) / note / Amazon Author Page